01Verified
Real contest entries
A lineup the account actually entered, matched to a DraftKings contest standings row. Entry fees, rank and payout may be counted in personal performance.
DFS EDGEEvidence first.
Claims second.
DFS Edge measures projections, simulations and lineup strategies, but it does not treat every useful data point as proof. This page explains what the numbers mean, what can influence the live builder, and what is deliberately kept out of reported winnings.
PUBLIC EVIDENCE STATUSIndependent samples are still developing. DFS Edge will not publish a “proven edge” until the forward-test threshold is met.
Four results. Four different meanings.
The fastest way to create misleading performance claims is to mix played entries, backtests and unplayed lineups. DFS Edge keeps them separate.
02Independent
Forward tests
Champion and challenger portfolios are saved before results are known, then scored on the same completed slate. These are the strongest model-comparison evidence.
03Research
Historical backtests
Previously completed slates replayed with known outcomes. Useful for calibration and research, but never described as a real entry or forward-test win.
04Not winnings
Hypothetical outcomes
What an unplayed lineup would have scored or earned. It can help evaluate lineup quality, but it is never added to win/loss, payout or ROI totals.
What has actually been recorded.
This scorecard separates completed result data from lineups that were personally entered. Hypothetical payouts never appear as winnings.
No figures are substituted while evidence is unavailable.
Loading verified evidence… Historical performance and projections do not guarantee future contest results.What the app actually evaluates.
Median projection error and correlation with actual DraftKings fantasy points, checked on unseen slates and by position.
Estimated ownership compared with actual contest ownership when the uploaded file contains a complete, recognizable player pool.
How simulated score distributions and percentile estimates compare with actual contest standings and payout thresholds.
Stacking, correlation, leverage, duplication and portfolio diversity evaluated using lineups saved before outcomes are known.
How an improvement earns its way into the builder.
The current user-facing builder remains the champion while a learned challenger competes invisibly on the same future slates.
- 01Save before lock
The active builder and hidden challenger are recorded before results are available.
- 02Match final results
Uploaded player results and contest standings are tied to the exact sport, slate and lineup.
- 03Score independently
Projection error, percentile finish, duplication, ownership, payout and portfolio behavior are measured separately.
- 04Apply safety gates
A learned adjustment must improve unseen slates without materially harming a position group.
- 05Increase gradually
A challenger earns influence only after repeated forward-test evidence. One strong slate is not enough.
Labels you can trust.
Current slate information, which may change as news and feeds update.
Passed the defined evidence and safety requirements on independent data.
Useful observations exist, but the minimum independent sample has not been reached.
The proposed adjustment failed a safety or improvement gate and is not applied.
What DFS Edge will not claim.
- Simulated or hypothetical payouts are not real winnings.
- Personal contest ROI is not presented as proof that every user will profit.
- A strong backtest is not described as a forward-test win.
- Uploaded results do not automatically change live projections.
- No projection, lineup, percentile or model can guarantee a prize.
Sports outcomes remain uncertain. DFS Edge is analytics software, not a sportsbook, contest operator or financial product.
Use the numbers. Understand the limits.
Every strategy is designed to help users make more informed lineup decisions while keeping uncertainty visible.
A free account has no subscription and requires no card. Pro is optional; eligible new subscribers get 5 days free, then the displayed monthly price until canceled.